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Tropical Depression Nine: Gulf of Mexico at threat for a potential hurricane

The system has caught the attention of meteorologists as weather forecast models in both the United States and Europe show that it will evolve into a hurricane and enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

The Nine maintains winds of 35 mph about 615 miles east-southeast of Jamaica and tracks west-northwest at 13 miles per hour.

“Only slow intensity is forecast over the next day or so, followed by a significant intensification over the weekend and early next week,” the Hurricane Center said.

In the short term, the Nine is projected to bring heavy rainfall to Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, northern Venezuela and northern Colombia, with possible flash floods and landslides across the island.

The system is then projected to intensify as it tracks toward Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, intensifying into tropical storms. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings may be issued for these locations within the next 24 hours.

Total forecasted precipitation:

  • Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao: an additional 1-2 inches
  • Northern Venezuela: 2 to 5 inches
  • Northern Colombia: 3 to 6 inches
  • Jamaica: 4 to 8 inches, local maximum up to 12 inches
  • Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches
  • South Haiti and Southern Dominican Republic: 2 to 4 inches, up to 6 inches

After passing over the Caribbean Sea this weekend, the system will track it as a hurricane near or over western Cuba and is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

The Hurricane Center says, “Early, the model guidance is fairly well matched, but by 48 hours the spread across the track starts to grow.” “There is still a good amount of uncertainty in track forecasts on the 4th to 5th timeframe.”

Leading weather forecast models for both the US and Europe now show systems tracking the Gulf of Mexico early next week. However, America shows a more westward track and Europe a more eastward track.

European models Friday morning showed a storm that hit the Florida Keys on Tuesday and affected much of southern Florida.American models showed a storm hitting much of Florida’s west-central coast on Wednesday. was shown.

The official forecast track from the Hurricane Center has split the differences between forecast models, showing that the storm is approaching the Florida peninsula late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning as a strong Category 2 hurricane.

Hurricane Center spokesperson Maria Torres said conditions in the Gulf would be favorable to strengthen the system regardless of where the hurricane reaches. He said he would strengthen it very quickly.

The hurricane season, which was predicted to be above average, got off to a slow start. He has only made one landfall in U.S. territory, and no hurricane has ever made landfall or threatened the neighboring United States.

A week past the peak of hurricane season, the tropics seem to have woken up and forecasters worry people have let their guard down.

“After a slow start, the Atlantic hurricane season is gaining momentum quickly,” said Phil Klotzbach, a research scientist at Colorado State University.

“People tend to let their guard down and think, oh yeah, we’re out of the woods,” Torres said. “But really, the season is on. It’s still September. We’re still in October, and anything forming in the Atlantic or Caribbean should continue to be monitored very closely.”

The Atlantic hurricane season ends on November 30th.

In any case, if you live in the Caribbean, Florida, and other states along the Gulf Coast, keep an eye out for updated forecasts this weekend and early next week.

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